The rapid growth in international tourist arrivals to Vietnam has contributed to a positive short- to mid-term outlook for the Hanoi hotel industry, STR Global’s data and analysis revealed.

During the first two months of 2019, Hanoi reported double-digit increases in ADR (+10.1% to VND 2.9 million (equivalent to US$123) and RevPAR (+14% to VND 2.2 million). Occupancy rose 3.5% to 77%, driven by a 4.1% jump in demand. The market experienced slight RevPAR growth in 2018 (+0.4%) once again pushed by ADR (+3.7%).

“Vietnam has become a popular destination for tourists, as international arrivals have tripled from five million visitors in 2010 to 15.5 million in 2018,” said Jesper Palmqvist, STR’s area director for Asia-Pacific.

“Later during that time period, Hanoi saw an uptick in supply when the metric grew roughly 4% for 12 consecutive months ending with July 2018. However, the current slowdown in development has certainly helped ease the pressure off of overall performance.”

There are 224 hotels accounting for 17,615 rooms in Hanoi. The market continues to remain full of smaller hotels, with almost 75% of all hotels at 100 rooms or fewer, and 60% of all hotels with fewer than 50 rooms. There are roughly 3,000 rooms in the development pipeline, with fewer than 1,000 rooms expected to open in 2019.

Not only has the balanced supply helped Q1 performance, but events and holidays in Hanoi have set the market on track for solid performance levels in 2019. There was improved occupancy during Tết (February 5), and the North Korea-US Hanoi Summit (February 27-28 ) resulted in one of the highest monthly ADR levels ever recorded in the market.

“The strong start to 2019 produced a positive outlook for the rest of the year,” Palmqvist said. “RevPAR growth will certainly be heightened this year, ultimately driven by an increase in occupancy during the low season and continued ADR growth throughout a majority of the upcoming months.”

C9 Hotelworks is forecasting a slowdown in the double-digit growth rates Phuket has witnessed in recent years, and India’s rising importance against China as a “mass travel machine”.

While airport arrivals grew 8% year-on-year, the gains posted were at their lowest level since 2015, according to consulting group C9 Hotelworks’ newly released Phuket Hotel Market Update.

The first half of 2018 saw arrivals soar by 17% versus the same period in 2017, but the second half of the year was marred by the Chinese boat accident, which decelerated momentum. By the end of the year, annualised hotel demand had declined by 4%.

Commenting on the rise and fall, C9’s managing director Bill Barnett commented: “The period of August through October eradicated the early gains in the year. At that juncture, despite negative industry sentiment of a continued drop, a soft landing ensued in the final two months of the year driven mostly on rates, and by year-end the new normal kicked in.”

Moving into 2019, Jesper Palmqvist of hospitality intelligence group STR noted: “When looking at the long-term historic trend, the pipeline of new supply but conversely also the increased competition in the region for Chinese demand, it is plausible that this recent pressure on Phuket performance will continue into the second half of the year, with an increased spread in performance among the hotels – basically a tightening of the market compared to the past couple of years.”

Further reflecting on the prevailing trade winds at the end of 2018, he said: “This trend continued throughout peak season into 2019 where January was similar to that of 2015, with overall demand shifting by -6% compared to the same month last year. Indications in daily data for the important month of February echoes the sentiment hitting numbers close to 2017, leading to peak season ending with a noticeable step back. In addition, it is likely that March may also see a year-over-year decline from last year, but as we approach low season again we do not expect negative growth to continue to the same extent.”

Among key trends expected to shape the island’s tourism road ahead, Barnett expects intensified competition for Chinese travellers from other destinations in the region.

And as hotels fight for market share, there will be increased rate volatility.

“Phuket over the past few years has successfully managed to cash in when the going was good, and drive higher rates during periods of high demand. With a China slowdown, appreciation of the Thai baht and growing competition, rates are likely to be under attack in the foreseeable future,” Barnett explained.

With surging land prices in Bangkok and other key Asian CBD areas, developers are adjusting their return outlook and continue to either transact properties in Phuket or undertake greenfield developments. A second factor is property development groups looking to mitigate risk in a challenged real estate sector and look at recurring cash flow investment models.

Closing out the outlook on Phuket, another of key takeaway from C9 Hotelworks report is that India is seeing a rapid escalation of market prominence. In 2018 Indian inbound travellers recorded a 56% year-on-year increase as direct flights to the island were opened from Mumbai, New Delhi and Bengaluru. With more airlift coming in 2019, eyes are now turned to the subcontinent as a supplement for the mainland China mass travel machine.

Seoul-Danang is the fastest-growing passenger route in Asia-Pacific, in a new study release by Routesonline at Routes Asia 2019, which took place from in Cebu last well.

More than 2.2 million passengers took a flight between the two destinations in 2018, compared with 1.3 million just 12 months earlier, translating to a 71% rise in the number of passengers.

According to OAG Schedules Analyser, two-way capacity on the Seoul-Danang route jumped by 73% in 2018 to 2.8 million available seats. A total of 10 carriers served the market, up from nine in 2017.

Jin Air had a 20% capacity share of the total number of seats on offer last year, with Korean Air on 15.1% and Jeju Airlines on 13.2%. In total there were almost 12,100 flight departures on the route, compared with fewer than 7,500 in 2017.

In second place is Manila-Iloilo, which connects the capital of the Philippines with Iloilo City on Panay Island. Total passenger traffic increased by nearly 48% in 2018 to more than 2.1 million passengers.

Overall two-way capacity rose by 49% in 2018 compared with the previous year, OAG figures show, increasing to 2.5 million seats. Cebu Pacific commanded a 50.5% capacity share, followed by Philippine Airlines with 31.3% and Philippines AirAsia with 18.2%.

In joint third in the list are two domestic routes. The first links Indonesia’s capital Jakarta with the port city of Palembang, while the second connects Hyderabad in south India with Bengaluru. Both routes saw passenger numbers increase by 20% in 2018.

Routesonline’s research found the top 100 passenger routes to/from and within the Asia-Pacific region during 2018 using the latest data provided by Sabre Market Intelligence. The list was then ranked by percentage annual growth when compared with the same period in 2017.

Classes and workshops, as well as wellness experiences, are the top activity categories global travellers are booking, according to TripAdvisor data.

TripAdvisor’s 2019 Experiences Trends Report revealed that globally, traveller bookings for classes and workshops grew by 90% year-over-year. This was even more so for travellers from Singapore, as bookings for classes and workshops doubled (+102%).

French travellers are leading the way worldwide, with bookings rising 137% over the previous year. A Roman Gladiator School: Learn How to Become a Gladiator became the world’s most booked class and workshop last year. Samurai School in Kyoto: Samurai for a Day, surf lessons at Sydney’s Bondi Beach and a Cambodian pottery class were also featured in the top 10.

Health and well-being is high on the list too. Global traveller bookings for wellness experiences jumped 69% year-over year, with New Zealanders leading the way in the quest for wellness, as bookings for wellness experiences by Kiwi travellers jumped a whopping 362% year-over-year.

Traveller bookings from Singapore for wellness experiences rose 68% over the previous year. A Széchenyi spa experience was the most booked wellness experience among global travellers, while a trip to Thermae-Yu Hotspring in Shinjuku and luxury spas in Phuket also ranked among the top 10.

Sightseeing and iconic attractions are a mainstay, but experiences must cater to the whole family, TripAdvisor observed. Family-friendly activities have become a firm priority for travellers worldwide as bookings shot up over 200% year-over-year.

While tickets and tours to the world’s top attractions, like a Faster Than Skip-the-Line: Vatican, Sistine Chapel and St. Peter’s Basilica Tour, remain the most-booked experiences globally, there’s a growing focus among travellers to have such experiences cater to the whole family. Experiences like a Waitomo Glowworm Caves Guided Tour and Disney on Broadway Behind-the-Scenes Walking Tour are among the 10 most-booked family-friendly experiences.

The UAE is predicted to witness particularly strong growth from China and Russia following Expo 2020 and its legacy, District 2020, according to research from Colliers International, in partnership with the Arabian Travel Market (ATM).

Expo 2020 and District 2020 are expected to have a long-term influence on the growth of inbound arrivals to the UAE from the country’s top five source markets between 2018 and 2023, the study projects.

Looking at the country’s top three source markets, the number of Indian visitors travelling to the UAE will increase at a CAGR of seven per cent to three million in 2023, while arrivals from Saudi Arabia and the UK will witness an increase of two per cent and one per cent to 1.8 million and 1.3 million respectively over the same period.

While the UAE’s top source market rankings are expected to remain mostly unchanged post-Expo 2020, the research reveals the Russian and Chinese source markets will show above average annual growth rates for inbound passenger arrivals.

Danielle Curtis, exhibition director ME, ATM, said: “The number of Russian tourists travelling to the UAE will increase at a CAGR of 12 per cent to 1.6 million in 2023, while the number of Chinese tourists visiting the UAE will increase at a CAGR of eight per cent to 1.27 million over the same period, according to the data.”

Looking to acquire their share of these high-growth markets at ATM 2019 will be the tourism boards from the UAE’s seven emirates with major exhibits from Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Ras Al Khaimah, Sharjah, Ajman and Fujairah as well as over 93 other UAE exhibitors such as Emirates, Emaar Hospitality Group and Dubai Airports Corporation.

Curtis said: “Taking a look at the other key drivers, besides Expo 2020, Russian visitors to the UAE have grown in recent years, due to the introduction of additional and direct airline routes. Russian visitors also now benefit from relaxed UAE visa regulations and rising oil prices are helping to strengthen the Russian rouble, making the UAE more affordable.

“Regarding Chinese visitors, according to some analysts China’s middle-class will swell to 338 million households by 2020, a 13 per cent increase in just five years. Moreover, by 2030 35 per cent of China’s 1.4 billion population will have US$10,000 of annual disposable income, up 10 per cent from 2018. Therefore, the growth potential for both markets is significant.”

With 20 million annual visitors expected to visit Dubai by 2020, plus an additional five million between October 2020 and April 2021 – 70 per cent of which will come from outside the UAE – the overall hospitality supply in the emirate is expected to increase by 39 per cent from 59,561 keys in 2017 to 82,994 in 2021 to meet this demand.

Meanwhile in neighbouring emirate Abu Dhabi, the number of rooms across three-, four- and five-star properties is forecast to grow 13 per cent from 21,782 in 2017 to 24,565 in 2021.

“Just as Dubai and Abu Dhabi have their own unique set of visitor attractions, we are now seeing the northern emirates carving stronger identities, supported by their respective tourism authorities. And, while Ras Al Khaimah, Sharjah and Fujairah are smaller than Dubai and Abu Dhabi in terms of supply, they are evolving quickly,” Curtis said.

Ras Al Khaimah is working on an unprecedented pipeline, which will more than double the number of hotel rooms, from 4,019 in 2017 to 9,078 in 2021, the largest proportionate pipeline in the GCC.

The number of hotel rooms in Sharjah is also expected to more than double between 2017 and 2021, taking the total number of hotel rooms in the emirate to 5,295 by 2021. Meanwhile, Fujairah will add almost 500 keys over the same period taking its total stock to 2,543 rooms.

Taking place from April 28 to May 1, ATM 2019 will feature cutting-edge technology and innovation as its main theme, which will be integrated across all show verticals and activities, including focused seminar sessions, featuring dedicated exhibitor participation.

ATM welcomed over 39,000 people to its 2018 event, showcasing the largest exhibition in the history of the show, with hotels comprising 20 per cent of the floor area.